Free tool
A 3:1 setup is worthless if you win 20% of the time.
Risk to reward is quoted as if it were a verdict, and on its own it is not one. What makes it meaningful is the win rate it requires — a ratio and a hit rate are one number in two halves, and this shows both.
Risk / reward calculator
Prices in whatever the instrument quotes in — points, ticks, dollars. The direction is inferred from where the stop sits relative to the entry, so it works for longs and shorts without a toggle.
The break-even win rate is the output that matters. Above it the setup makes money over enough trades; below it, taking more of them makes things worse.
The pairing, not the ratio
Every ratio has a win rate that makes it break even, and it is a single line: 1 ÷ (1 + R:R).
At 1:1 you need to win 50% of the time. At 2:1, 33.3%. At 3:1, 25%. At 0.5:1 — risking twice what you stand to make — you need 66.7%, which is why scalping strategies with tight targets live or die on hit rate rather than on ratio.
None of those is better than the others in the abstract. A 3:1 setup you win 20% of the time loses money. A 0.5:1 setup you win 80% of the time makes it. The pairing decides, and a ratio quoted without a hit rate has told you nothing.
| Risk : reward | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 1 : 3 (risking 3 to make 1) | 75.0% |
| 1 : 2 | 66.7% |
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% |
| 2 : 1 | 33.3% |
| 3 : 1 | 25.0% |
| 5 : 1 | 16.7% |
Where the number quietly stops being true
The ratio is computed from three prices you chose. Two of them are not guaranteed.
The stop slips. A stop becomes a market order the moment it triggers, in the conditions that triggered it — so realised risk is routinely larger than planned risk. A 10-point stop that fills 2 points late is a 12-point loss, and your 3:1 was really 2.5:1.
The target may not fill. A resting limit at the target does not slip, it simply does not fill if price turns a tick early. Strategies that book most winners slightly below target and take full losses at the stop have a materially worse real ratio than the planned one.
Measure both from your own fills rather than your plan. Slippage in futures trading covers where it clusters and why stops are the worst of it.
From ratio to position size
This calculator says whether a setup is worth taking. It does not say how large to take it, and those are different questions answered in a specific order.
First, does the pairing of ratio and hit rate produce positive expectancy — the expectancy calculator settles that with your own averages. Then, given the stop distance this setup implies, how many contracts keep the loss inside your risk budget — that is the position size calculator.
Doing it the other way round — picking a size, then finding a stop that fits — is how people end up with stops placed where the arithmetic wanted them rather than where the chart justified them.
Common questions
How do you calculate risk to reward?
Divide the distance from entry to target by the distance from entry to stop. An entry at 5800 with a stop at 5790 and a target at 5830 risks 10 to make 30 — a 3:1 ratio.
What is a good risk to reward ratio?
There is no good ratio independent of win rate. Each ratio has a break-even hit rate — 25% at 3:1, 50% at 1:1, 66.7% at 1:2 — and what matters is whether you beat yours. A 3:1 setup won 20% of the time loses money.
What win rate do I need for a 2:1 risk reward?
More than 33.3% to break even, and meaningfully more than that to be worth trading after costs. The formula is 1 ÷ (1 + ratio).
Is a 1:1 risk reward bad?
No. It needs a win rate above 50%, which many mean-reversion and scalping strategies genuinely have. It is only bad if your hit rate does not clear the bar it sets.
Why is my real risk to reward worse than planned?
Because stops slip and targets sometimes do not fill. A stop becomes a market order in fast conditions, so realised risk is often larger than planned; a resting target simply misses if price turns a tick early. Measure both from your own fills.
Is my data sent anywhere?
No. The calculator runs entirely in your browser. Nothing you type is transmitted, stored or logged, and the page makes no network request while you use it.
More on free tools
Start on a simulated account.
Connect a sim or evaluation account and run the whole product against it before you point anything at live money. Nothing about the setup changes when you do.